DaveScot ja ennustamisen vaikeus

Tulevaisuuden arvuuttelu ei sovi Uncommon Descentin DaveScotille. Kitzmiller oikeudenkäynnin lähestyessä hän oli asiantuntija tuomarin suhteen. Dave kuvaili tuomari Jonesia näin:

Judge John E. Jones on the other hand is a good old boy brought up through the conservative ranks … political buddy of Governor Tom Ridge (who in turn is deep in George W. Bush’s circle of power), and finally was appointed by GW hisself. Senator Rick Santorum is a Pennsylvanian in the same circles (author of the “Santorum Language” that encourages schools to teach the controversy) and last but far from least, George W. Bush hisself drove a stake in the ground saying teach the controversy. Unless Judge Jones wants to cut his career off at the knees he isn’t going to rule against the wishes of his political allies. Of course the ACLU will appeal. This won’t be over until it gets to the Supreme Court. But now we own that too.

Dave oli hieman väärässä analyysinsä kanssa.

Tuorein huomattava esimerkki ennustamisen vaikeudesta liittyy vaaleihin. Syyskuussa Dave muisteli kuinka demokraatit ovat kilpailleet siitä kuinka surkeita tuloksia he saavat aikaan. Hän oli suht varma, että sama toistuisi uudelleen, seuraavista syistä:

Even totally united behind Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2004 you couldn’t beat a dumbass draft dodging reborn alcoholic George “Shrub” Bush and his snake-oil sidekick Dick Cheney of all people. That’s pretty pathetic. This round you’ve got an even worse candidate that half of your own party thinks stole the nomination by cheating and dirty politics. Your party is shattered up the middle and you have the worst candidate in all the decades I’ve been paying attention. I knew Jack Kennedy and your nominee, PZ, is no Jack Kennedy.

Now the culture war is still on, the players are all the same on both sides, except this time we have an honest-to-God centrist war hero, even if he is an elitist beltway insider, and a little unheard of cutie, obviously a political savant, who in 30 minutes won the hearts and minds of every heretofore apathetic God fearing blue collar flyover family all across the nation and made them start caring about who wins this election not to mention is stealing a lot of the Hillary voters who wanted nothing more than a woman in the Whitehouse. If McCain wins then Palin, sooner or later, is going to become the first woman president of the United States as by the time she’s up for election to the top spot there won’t be any question of lack of experience. You are basically looking at teh American Margaret Thatcher. Get used to her. She’s going to be in your face for the next 16 years. It’s all over except for the tears and anger from your side that you were f*cked yet again. Write that down.

Näyttäisi siltä, että Dave oli jälleen hieman väärässä.